Prediction in history, as in other historical sciences, is most feasible on large spatial scales and over long times, when the unique features of millions of small-scale brief events become averaged out.
(from the Epilogue of Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel)
Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. [...] Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion.
(Wikipedia page for Pyschohistory [fictional])
Another candidate for real-world psychohistorian is Peter Turchin, who uses equations derived from population dynamics -modified to take Ibn Kahldun's concept of asabiyah into account- to model the rise and fall of precapitalist empires.
I'll have to check out War and Peace and War one of these days. I doubt I'll find it convincing, but nevertheless it has a fascinating thesis. (Turchin's name for his discipline, "Cliodynamics", sounds way better than "Psychohistory". Furthermore, this latter name is already taken.)
No comments:
Post a Comment